Lancaster

I noticed that one or two posters are saying that the US will implode if gas prices continue to rise.

There isn't really any need to guess as the prices in Europe have gone way, way past US levels and we aren't yet seeing anarchy in the UK.

US citizens are generally quite resourceful when push comes to shove. Belts will have to be tightened.

I don't agree that Europe's "great" public transport system makes a big difference. Most people still drive to work and people that drive to work will have similar commute times to US friends. The UK public transport system is complete and utter pants. Travelling in NY for example is way better then travelling in London.

This may be controversial, but if you look at the posts in this forum you will see a lot of Europeans having to run 2.0d E60s but paying just as much for them as a US punter pays for a loaded high capacity petrol version. That will probably not continue long into the future. At least the US will benefit from the improving BMW diesel technology by the time it arrives.

There are a lot of people in the UK who use large 4x4 cars to ferry the kids a few miles to school but they are increasingly being seen as a bit naff (unstylish, clich?d, or outmoded). I think there are even more gas guzzlers in the US but the signs are already there that this is changing as Honda and Toyota have grown at the expense of local producers who relied on SUVs for sales.

Ultimately, you will follow the European trend of buying smaller more fuel efficient cars, with a greater proportion of diesel cars being sold. I don't think that necessarily means hybrid cars as they seem to being exposed for:

Use of scarce and expensive resources during manufacturing.
Real life fuel consumption nowhere near claimed figures.

I have followed my colleague down the M6 motorway for 100 miles in my 520d and achieved over 50mpg (Imperial not US) to his 45mpg in a Prius.

I dont know how Toyota get away with these claims.

BTW, in the graph below, you can say that 1 pence equals 2 cents.

Also 3.78 litres equals 1 US gallon.

So the current petrol price (114p per litre) = $8.62 per US Gallon...

Ricracing

Sorry that I edited your writing, but the answer to why diesels will not come the to US is
do to your old fashion oil refinery's, the diesel fuel is not the same high quality as in the EU.

ZinMe

I agree that diesel is likely to grow in the US, but it appears improvements in emission controls will have to be made.

I did a little digging around on the internet yesterday and learned that in the US, low sulfur diesel has been available since 2006. However, in some states such as California, diesel cars do not meet the emissions criteria so as of 2007 when lower emission requirements kicked in, most diesels were no longer for sale. (I'm not sure about this, but it appears to be the case.) Looking at an industry website, there are only a handful of diesels available for sale in 2008-- a few Mercedes CDI models, the Volkswagen Toureg TDI and a Jeep SUV. I am only aware of three other models that will ship with a low emission diesel system in the near future-- BMW will offer a 3.0L turbo diesel on the 335i this year, Volkswagen will offer a 2.0L Jetta TDI this fall, and Acura will offer a TSX turbo diesel in 2009.

Interestingly, diesel engines appear to have much higher torque for the same displacement, and significantly higher mileage. If you compare apples to apples (ie. equal torque to equal torque) you can use a much lower displacement engine and the mileage is at least 50% better.

I believe that in the US in order for diesel cars to meet the new emissions requirements, auto makers have to choose small engines (ie. 2.0L) or use expensive systems like a Urea system that catalyzes the emmissions. How does Europe deal with diesel emmissions?

BTW, my issue with the Prius isn't the mileage-- it is actually pretty good even if it isn't up to the claims. My issue is the cost. It is a tin can with a light, weak chassis, cheap engine, quirky/spartan interior and poor crash protection. It feels like a car that should cost less than $20K in the US, not $29K.

Ricracing

BMW offers a twin-turbo 2.0 l diesel with 200 hp and a 400 Nm torgue on the 123d and the new LCI 323d.
This engine as the current 177 hp / 350 Nm are only good for EU4 norms, but will be upgraded soon for lower
NO

The problem for the US market is the NOx emissions, but that will soon be handled.

M-B will next fall come out with a new diesel family of 2.2 l L4 diesels.
With one turbo the values will be 177 hp and 400 Nm and with two turbos 200 hp and 500 Nm.
Both these engines are good for EU6 emission norms and be good enough for California.

swajames

That's untrue, Ric. The US diesel is indeed of the required quality. The two real issues are the emission control capabilities of the current generation of diesel engines and their ability to limit greenhouse gasses other than CO2. EU rules focus heavily on CO2 emissions, and car makers build engines accordingly. EU regulations allow higher levels of gasses such as nitrous oxide than are permitted in the US states that follow the rules set by the California Air Resources Board. These states happen to comprise most of the larger markets within the US. The work done on the 2009 BMW diesels and the newest generation of the MB BlueTec diesels address these issues - and these cars are indeed bound for the US. The diesel in the US is fine - the EPA mandates low sulfur diesel that is broadly the same as you have in the EU. My question is why the EU focuses only on CO2 - if the EU followed the rules set by CARB you'd be justified in the pontification, but as it stands US cars (assuming CARB compliance) are probably cleaner overall than those that can be sold in the EU.

Ricracing

The US diesel is not always good enough for the new pietzo injectors.

CO2 is almost one to one to lower mpg or should I say Less Oil Imported (LOI)
but also the CO's and NOX's are important.

According to International Fuel Quality Center the diesel is also very clean of sulfur over here.

swajames

My point is that the EU chooses to allow higher levels of very harmful gasses like NOx to help achieve lower CO2 emissions whereas US rules typically set low levels for all gasses. I'm sure we all agree that lower MPG could and should be an objective of either approach.

ZinMe

James-- thanks for the information. Do you know how BMW and Mercedes are able to meet the new emission reqmt's in the US? Do they use a Urea system or another approach? The Urea system sounds a little complicated. Cars would be fitted with a 2-3 gallon tank that would spray small amounts of Urea into the exhaust so that a catalytic converter can neutralize the NOx etc... Owners would need to have the urea refilled at each oil change.

BTW, I'm resisting the temptation to buy a Jetta/Golf TDI. They are available used, and the mileage is >40 MPG, but presumably they do not meet the new emissions requirements, although it appears perfectly legal to drive them as they were manufactured before the new reqmt's applied. I also have learned that automakers that sell diesels which meet the MPG and emissions reqmt's will be entitled to a similar tax rebate as hybrids up to 60k autos per manufacture.

TMQ

The higher gas price not only impacts the driving, but also affects the price of all the other things that depend on transportation to get here from somewhere.

I saw an interview on PBS last week; a professor was saying that in the past, gas price did not go up steadily - it fluctuates, and most people just ignore it. Now that the curve is very straight, it really gets everyone's attention.

I think the market will play itself out. At some point, people will reduce driving/unnecessary trips, and will carpool more or take public transit. Thirsty SUVs will soon be a thing of the past. Auto makers like Honda will fare OK. Detroit will suffer. Perhaps this is a wake up call to all the Americans that being frugal and efficient will be critical to survival in a global economy.

ZinMe

Here is the disclaimer on the Mercedes website regarding the 2008 Bluetech

"The 2008 E320 BLUETEC does not meet the emissions requirements of California, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, or Vermont and is not available in these states.

In California, a limited number of Model Year 2007 E320 BLUETEC vehicles are available for a limited duration and mileage lease only. No purchase option available. Available only to qualified customers through Mercedes-Benz Financial at participating dealers. Not everyone will qualify. Subject to credit approval and inventory availability. See your authorized Mercedes-Benz dealer for complete details on this offer."