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Old 08-21-2005, 07:40 AM
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Interesting article in NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/business....html?th&emc=th
Old 08-21-2005, 08:17 PM
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OK, time for me to chime in.
Given my screen name, I know a little about this subject.
I've been on vacation for the past 3 weeks and real estate has been the last thing on my mind.
Here's my take on the market - Massachusetts at least.

1. This market has been driven by supply and demand. Restrictions over the past decade have made development in this region very difficult. New construction levels are far from what they used to be, along with the increase of immigrant buyers and the fact that home ownership is at record levels have kept demand strong and supply low.

2. Interest rates have been fueling this market (although the speculators seem to be getting into the picture as of the last quarter or so (crap!)).

3. When the market in Massachusetts "crashed" the last time it took 5 years (1990 - 1995) to crash. That market was fueled by heavy speculation and an economy that got the rug pulled out from under it. I see this market as being different (at least up until now).

4. The capital gain exclusion that was modified several years ago has allowed people to not only move up but down (especially the baby boomers) without needing to take the once one-time-only 55 year old capital gain exclusion, thus making the market much more liquid.

5. However, we are now starting to see some leveling off of the market especially in the "upper end". Inventory levels are increasing as well as market times. In my area market times have increased from 30 days to 75+ days although the sale to list price ratios are still within 1.5%

Well, if I had the crystal ball that everyone is looking for, I'd be doing something other than this.

If interest rates stay reasonable and supply and demand stays strong I think this market may level off for a while but will still remain a great long term investment.
If interest rates spike heavilly then we may see some pricing pressure (but it will probably still cost a buyer the same or most likely MORE than today).

At the end of the day, real estate is Local! There will be regional influences and differences. All I can hope is that New England stays strong and rates stay low!
Old 08-22-2005, 12:53 PM
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Not being in realty but watching the local comings and goings as a bystander it is certainly obvious that there are local and regional hot and cool spots. And equally obvious is that these will tend to change over time. I'm in a hot growth area now and have seen other booms and busts. Not being in the business, nor in the market for sell or buying opportunities probably in the remainder of my lifetime, I cannot get excited over either a burst or not. What I do feel, however, is that being in a high growth area u can get some pretty heavy impacts on tax changes, traffic increases (I am always someplace where the roads improvements come after the traffic increase), and significant loss of green space. None of those I really like so if there is a bubble burst I just might like it.

But I hope fellow members in "the business" are not hurt should that happen
Old 08-26-2005, 03:08 PM
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I read this on latimes.com and thought it was funny:

But don't let me burst your bubble
By Bill Maher
You don't have to remember history, but you do have to remember Thursday. The bursting of the Nasdaq bubble was only five years ago. People lost a trillion dollars. And here we are today with real estate prices across the country that could aptly be compared to Courtney Love: irrationally high and about to collapse.

I don't want to say there's a housing bubble, but I had a refrigerator delivered this morning and a homeless guy offered me $3 million for the box. Not to burst your bubble, but all bubbles do burst. And we learned this recently. It's not just that grandma was alive the last time it happened. You were alive. Eminem was on the radio. Just like now because, again, it wasn't that long ago.

You know, one argument hurled against marijuana use is that it affects your short-term memory. You know, one argument hurled against marijuana use is that it affects your short-term memory. If that's true, then a) Americans, or b) the real estate market, must be pretty high.

But let me correct one thing: not all Americans. This bubble isn't all across the country. Score one here for the red states, because it's apparently only in the savvy, liberal do-gooder coastal blue areas that greed and stupidity have taken over.

When real estate collapses, people will go bankrupt, which will take down the banks, which all along have really owned their homes, which will bring down the markets and then the dollar. And the GOP will win an election based on renaming Amtrak the Jesus Choo Choo and the whole thing will fester to the point where Plan B is to live in caves and barter.

Luckily for me all my money is tied up in Google, sunscreen and guns.

We're a nation swimming in debt, and when we reach our credit limits we artificially inflate the prices of our homes and borrow more. People are refinancing -- borrowing on the equity that doesn't really exist and will soon go down -- to treat themselves to extravagances, like a full tank of gas.

And do you know who holds most of our national debt? Asians. The only thing standing between us and foreclosure is the fact that Angelina Jolie is holding most of their children.

But I digress. The point was about how supposedly intellectual, superior coastal elites are the ones dumping thousands into mortgages they can't afford, proving once and for all how much people will pay not to live in Kansas.

Well, that is kind of true. In a recent survey here in my beloved adopted state of California, nine out of 10 people said they had or would give up everything to live somewhere where they might see porn stars at the gas station.

And people are so impressed with themselves about the prices: "Wow, you bought a home in Stockton 20 years ago and now it's worth $1 million? You're Nostradamus!" Except this Nostradamus is the guy who lost a fortune in 2000 when Tubesocks.com went belly-up.

What don't Americans get about "you're only rich on paper?" If there's one thing that Republicans schooled in the ways of Wall Street have taught us, it's this: Don't spend money you don't have; spend money other people don't have.
Old 08-26-2005, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by cobradav' date='Aug 22 2005, 04:53 PM
Not being in realty but watching the local comings and goings as a bystander it is certainly obvious that there are local and regional hot and cool spots.? And equally obvious is that these will tend to change over time.? I'm in a hot growth area now and have seen other booms and busts.? Not being in the business, nor in the market for sell or buying opportunities probably in the remainder of my lifetime, I cannot get excited over either a burst or not.? What I do feel, however, is that being in a high growth area u can get some pretty heavy impacts on tax changes, traffic increases (I am always someplace where the roads improvements come after the traffic increase), and significant? loss of green space.? None of those I really like so if there is a bubble burst I just might like it.?

But I hope fellow members in "the business" are not hurt should that happen
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Old 08-26-2005, 11:21 PM
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Here's my take...at least for So. Cal. Yes the bubble will eventually bust but in general there are few more good years for the housing sector. Almost every larger piece of property in both low income and high income neighborhoods in So Cal are being developed as either multi-housing, mixed-use, single-family, low-income, live work residences. You-name-it, it's going up! My firm is slated for several more years of housing developments and we see no end in sight. (At least right now.) We cannot keep up with the developers who come to us. It's nice to be able to pick and choose. It was quite prevelant in the news about 4-5 years ago that there was/is a 30%-40% shortage of housing in So Cal. Fortunately, though our commercial work slowed down our housing boomed like we've never seen before. Almost all the abandoned office and warehouse building in downtown L.A. are being converted into housing of one kind or another. Most developments whether ours or another firms has some sort of housing element combined with the retail and commercial aspect of the projects. So for now I am riding the wave of demand before the supply is saturated!

Likewise the China market is a boomtown for ours and other firms...but that's a whole other topic!!!
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