JSpira

I just spent a good part of the past several days going through sales data from BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and VW to better understand what I've started to call comparable model sales for diesel versus petrol models (an example being the E90 335d versus the E90 335i).

First, in case you missed it from my previous article, several BMW NA execs confirmed to me that there will be an F10 diesel in the U.S. within the next year. In addition, BMW just announced specs for the 535d in Europe so it will probably be either the 530d or the 535d. Mercedes-Benz has already said it will offer a diesel E-Class later this year.

Back to the data for a moment (and I was doing this all in preparation for another Diesel Economics article in The Diesel Driver). Of course it all came from the various companies in different formats, but I eventually reconciled it and found some really interesting trends that will encourage BMW to bring more diesel-powered autos to the U.S.

For 2010 (thusfar), BMW is number 2 in diesel volume and in the percentage of comparable model diesel models compared to the petrol variant.

In June, the E90 335d outsold the E90 335i by a ratio of 7 to 5. This was the second time this year that the oil burner outsold the petrol model. The X5 diesel outsold its petrol-powered equivalent model in May by the way.

Volkswagen sells more diesels than anyone (even combining the sales of the other three companies!) and has an amazing diesel take rate on most models.

Mercedes-Benz, which introduced the first passenger diesel auto in 1936, was number 4 in both the percentage and total volume.

If you want more details and the detailed spreadsheet, please see Diesel Economics 200

swajames

I read your article over on The Diesel Driver and it's another very good analysis, Jonathan. Thanks for taking the time to prepare it.

It does raise some questions, though, around what actually drove the excellent sales numbers for the diesel-engined BMW models.

The drivers for diesel sales in Europe are well understood. In Europe, fuel is expensive, depreciation on larger-engined gasoline models is significantly higher than that of the equivalent smaller-engined cars and the tax systems (road and car tax plus personal taxes for those with company vehicles) tend to be favorable to diesel-engined vehicles as they are focused on C02 emissions.

None of these are true for the US market and here BMW's sales have, to a great extent, probably been driven by a couple of different factors. Most obviously, the impact of the eco credit will almost certainly have skewed the data, as will the impending replacement of the X5 where the diesel model was the least impacted by the LCI and thus still a reasonably safe buy as the pre-LCI sales came to a close, whereas anyone buying a pre-LCI gasoline-engined X5 had more incentive to wait for the refreshed model.

The question is whether these sales will continue without the distortion caused by the eco credit. Until we see sales numbers like those for the first half of 2010 when the sales playing field is level (i.e. there's no very material sales incentive specific to only the diesel) I'm not sure we can say that the market has truly changed as it could be that in the case of BMW at least buyers simply made the most sensible choice in light of the credits available.

In the case of the X5, another factor could have been the clear superiority of the X5xDrive35d over the pre-LCI 3 liter gasoline engine (and in some respects the V8 too) which has been largely eradicated by the new turbocharged engines in the xDrive35i and 50i.

With this in mind, is BMW shooting itself in the foot by taking away the marketing support and incentives? I'm not sure that the diesel/gasoline sales split will persist into the 2nd half of the year without the marketing support. BMW perhaps may have been better advised to continue the credit into the 2nd half and then phase it out rather than pull it. BMW is now promoting the federal tax credits ($900 and $1800) but these aren't available on leases, and a significant number of BMW's are leased.

Will be interesting to see how the numbers stack up in the second half of the year.

Ricracing

Diesel cars in the near future will extend in the US also.

Your country has a lot of wise and environmentally active people.

I guess the 535dA will be the first F10 diesel in US.
300 hp and 600 Nm is a lot of power.

Even the about 200 hp and 400 Nm 520d is more than enough for most people.

pharding

I would have leased a diesel F10 without incentives had it been available at this time. Or I would have done a hybrid had BMW offered it. Instead I went with old faithful, a big V8. Undoubtedly the 550 that I pick up on Tuesday in Munich will be the last one for me.

When the BMW Mega City Vehicle comes out in about 2013, we will wait 6 months after introduction and buy one for wifey. She is the perfect candidate for one with her very short commute and our location in the geographic center of the Chicago area, 8 miles west of the the Chicago's Loop. The car makes extensive use of carbon fiber, just like my bicycles, so the mileage per watt or whatever the new standard for electric cars will be, should be phenomenal. Next year we are replacing our existing 1921 garage and I am going to trick out the garage for future electric cars in both bays. I have concerns about carbon fiber cars in the event of a car crash that need to be considered. However I have enormous faith in BMW to solve the technical issues. Hopefully the Mega City Vehicle will be offered for Euro Delivery.

BMW has done a great job bringing new models and new products to the market. They are willing to take calculated risks and not rely on focus groups, like American car companies, for strategic planning and product development. An Architect/Owner's Representative for one of our fine clients just bought a Mini-Cooper S and he is thrilled with it. Of any manufacturer, not just auto manufacturers, BMW certainly has the golden touch that people all over the world respond to. BMW China just added a third shift at the 3 series factory in China to address the incredible demand in China for that car. BMW has such a great track record with my BMW's and very importantly, they have been superb with customer relations with me, that I am inclined to trust them to get innovative technology/cars right. When BMW brings the diesel F10 to the US I know that they will get it right and stick with it in the US for the long haul.