What's everybody's opinion on the upcoming Facebook IPO?
07-31-2012, 02:16 PM
#21
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Aaaah. That makes sense now. So if you've bought puts and the stock goes down, you can win in two ways. Either buy shares on the market and sell them to the person who issued the put, or sell your put contract to someone else. I did read up on all this 14 years ago and was keen to try it, but never did.
08-02-2012, 07:59 AM
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Aaaah. That makes sense now. So if you've bought puts and the stock goes down, you can win in two ways. Either buy shares on the market and sell them to the person who issued the put, or sell your put contract to someone else. I did read up on all this 14 years ago and was keen to try it, but never did.
Yeah I saw that too. I wonder if that'll just fade away due to lack of interest, or cause a shit storm. I'd be nervous if I were long (or short) FB.
Can you briefly explain how you're making money on puts if the stock is going down? I assume you weren't issuing them, just trading them somehow. I can see how if you're issuing puts, someone buys them, and the stock goes up instead of down, then you're a winner - you offered someone the right to sell at a price that was always lower than the current bid, so they expired worthless. But if you issued, and the price sunk, then you'd lose out. The price has been going down, that's why I'm curious.
I never got into options or shorting. I just played the straight buy/hold/sell on shares when I played the market (1998-2000 in the boom years).
Can you briefly explain how you're making money on puts if the stock is going down? I assume you weren't issuing them, just trading them somehow. I can see how if you're issuing puts, someone buys them, and the stock goes up instead of down, then you're a winner - you offered someone the right to sell at a price that was always lower than the current bid, so they expired worthless. But if you issued, and the price sunk, then you'd lose out. The price has been going down, that's why I'm curious.
I never got into options or shorting. I just played the straight buy/hold/sell on shares when I played the market (1998-2000 in the boom years).
buy a put contract, price plunges, you have the right (not obligation) to sell at your strike price.. so say your underlying (facebook in this example) was $30, you bought a put contract (strike $20 expiring august 2012 (3rd friday is opex)), premium lets say is 30 cents per share, like said above 1 contract = right to buy/sell 100, so, price drops past your strike-premium, you are now considered in the money, now you can execute and sell ("cash out") at $20ps when everyone else can only sell at $18ps (remember, your right, not obligation) $2x100=200$. you get to pocket the difference.. if facebook, in this example, goes up, or stays within price-premium, you are out of, or at the money, or basically holding a useless contract. good thing about options is that you can just let them expire and stomach the premium if you end up on the shit end by opex. or try spreads and hedge yourself a bit, also keep in mind about 70% of options contracts are left for dead
08-02-2012, 08:15 AM
#24
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This news today won't have helped their cause any.
No way I'm getting back into any kind of market. I got burned back in 2000 during the internet bubble crash. From 98-2000 I double my money, and then the first wave of the crash wiped out all of my profits so I exited the market even (and turns out I was incredibly lucky to get out even even).
No way I'm getting back into any kind of market. I got burned back in 2000 during the internet bubble crash. From 98-2000 I double my money, and then the first wave of the crash wiped out all of my profits so I exited the market even (and turns out I was incredibly lucky to get out even even).
08-02-2012, 08:22 AM
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This news today won't have helped their cause any.
No way I'm getting back into any kind of market. I got burned back in 2000 during the internet bubble crash. From 98-2000 I double my money, and then the first wave of the crash wiped out all of my profits so I exited the market even (and turns out I was incredibly lucky to get out even even).
No way I'm getting back into any kind of market. I got burned back in 2000 during the internet bubble crash. From 98-2000 I double my money, and then the first wave of the crash wiped out all of my profits so I exited the market even (and turns out I was incredibly lucky to get out even even).
also, when facebook ipo'ed, i think barry ritholtz (the big picture) was one of the only analysts to mention how much of a scam their DUA/MUA (Daily, monthly active user counts) were flawed. mix that with an unsustainable business growth model and youve got yourself a party. i was on that bandwagon, now as i watch $fb within a few ticks of a $19 handle i know i can just smile.... timing was off b/c of share lockup
08-04-2012, 04:01 PM
#26
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Theres alot more downside coming, I loaded more puts on the dead cat bounce on Friday when the market was up 240 and caused facebook to pop a little. Almost 1.7 billion shares of Facebook stock will enter the market over the next few months, starting in mid-August. That is more than four times the number of shares now floating on exchanges. The first batch of 268 million shares will be freed up in mid-August, followed by 192 million more shares in mid-October, and a whopping 1.2 billion shares will be let loose in mid-November. Not to mention the employees being able to sell end of month. Its setting up for a train wreck and I'll be ready for it. 
Not to mention facebook saying 100million accounts are FAKE. AND research from companies advertising on the site saying 80% of the clicks on ads(facebooks main reveneue) are from bots!
Guess most IPO investors for Suckerberged!
Not to mention facebook saying 100million accounts are FAKE. AND research from companies advertising on the site saying 80% of the clicks on ads(facebooks main reveneue) are from bots!
ey everyone, we're going to be deleting our Facebook page in the next couple of weeks, but we wanted to explain why before we do. A couple months ago, when we were preparing to launch the new Limited Run, we started to experiment with Facebook ads. Unfortunately, while testing their ad system, we noticed some very strange things. Facebook was charging us for clicks, yet we could only verify about 20% of them actually showing up on our site. At first, we thought it was our analytics service. We tried signing up for a handful of other big name companies, and still, we couldn't verify more than 15-20% of clicks. So we did what any good developers would do. We built our own analytic software. Here's what we found: on about 80% of the clicks Facebook was charging us for, JavaScript wasn't on. And if the person clicking the ad doesn't have JavaScript, it's very difficult for an analytics service to verify the click. What's important here is that in all of our years of experience, only about 1-2% of people coming to us have JavaScript disabled, not 80% like these clicks coming from Facebook. So we did what any good developers would do. We built a page logger. Any time a page was loaded, we'd keep track of it. You know what we found? The 80% of clicks we were paying for were from bots. That's correct. Bots were loading pages and driving up our advertising costs. So we tried contacting Facebook about this. Unfortunately, they wouldn't reply. Do we know who the bots belong too? No. Are we accusing Facebook of using bots to drive up advertising revenue. No. Is it strange? Yes. But let's move on, because who the bots belong to isn't provable.
While we were testing Facebook ads, we were also trying to get Facebook to let us change our name, because we're not Limited Pressing anymore. We contacted them on many occasions about this. Finally, we got a call from someone at Facebook. They said they would allow us to change our name. NICE! But only if we agreed to spend $2000 or more in advertising a month. That's correct. Facebook was holding our name hostage. So we did what any good hardcore kids would do. We cursed that piece of shit out! Damn we were so pissed. We still are. This is why we need to delete this page and move away from Facebook. They're scumbags and we just don't have the patience for scumbags.
While we were testing Facebook ads, we were also trying to get Facebook to let us change our name, because we're not Limited Pressing anymore. We contacted them on many occasions about this. Finally, we got a call from someone at Facebook. They said they would allow us to change our name. NICE! But only if we agreed to spend $2000 or more in advertising a month. That's correct. Facebook was holding our name hostage. So we did what any good hardcore kids would do. We cursed that piece of shit out! Damn we were so pissed. We still are. This is why we need to delete this page and move away from Facebook. They're scumbags and we just don't have the patience for scumbags.
08-09-2012, 08:36 AM
#27
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Theres alot more downside coming, I loaded more puts on the dead cat bounce on Friday when the market was up 240 and caused facebook to pop a little. Almost 1.7 billion shares of Facebook stock will enter the market over the next few months, starting in mid-August. That is more than four times the number of shares now floating on exchanges. The first batch of 268 million shares will be freed up in mid-August, followed by 192 million more shares in mid-October, and a whopping 1.2 billion shares will be let loose in mid-November. Not to mention the employees being able to sell end of month. Its setting up for a train wreck and I'll be ready for it. Not to mention facebook saying 100million accounts are FAKE. AND research from companies advertising on the site saying 80% of the clicks on ads(facebooks main reveneue) are from bots!
Guess most IPO investors for Suckerberged!
Not to mention facebook saying 100million accounts are FAKE. AND research from companies advertising on the site saying 80% of the clicks on ads(facebooks main reveneue) are from bots!Guess most IPO investors for Suckerberged!
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